How Much Power Have Arizona Sellers Lost Since September?
Sept. To Oct. 2022 Comparison
Back in May 2022, the overall CMI for Greater Phoenix was well over 400. As of October 20th, 2022 it was 99.1. The percentage drop is one of the highest in Arizona history. Overall Greater Phoenix's CMI has not been under 100 in nearly an entire decade.
To Be Fair To Arizona
The market correction is happening all over the United States. The difference, however, is that metros that rose fast during the pandemic are the ones getting hit the hardest. These metros include the: Boise, Vegas, and Greater Phoenix real estate markets. Another way to look at it is that these are now the metros offering the most opportunity to BUYERS. And will most likely continue to for quite some time.
What Is The CMI And Why Is It So Important?
The Cromford Report, a leading data company, uses what is called The Cromford Index. The "CMI" looks at many points of data including inventory levels and buyer demand. In short, it determines the value of an overall housing market. In this case we will be looking at not only the overall CMI, but the CMI for each of the 17 individual cities/areas that are measured in the entire Phoenix Metro.
Back in May 2022, the typical CMI in Greater Phoenix was well over 400. Additionally:
- 0-90 = buyers market
- 90-110 = balanced market
- 110-500 = sellers market
On 9/8/22 The Hyper Local CMI's Were:
- Paradise Valley - CMI 198.3
- Fountain Hills - CMI 177.2
- Scottsdale - CMI 135.2
- Cave Creek - CMI 123.4
- Phoenix - CMI 99.9
- Mesa - CMI 94.1
- Glendale - CMI 93.2
- Chandler - CMI 92.9
- Goodyear - CMI 91.6
- Peoria - CMI 88.8
- Avondale - CMI 86.6
- Tempe - CMI 86.1
- Surprise - CMI 80.3
- Gilbert - CMI 76.8
- Maricopa - CMI 64.1
- Queen Creek - CMI 55.0
- Buckeye - CMI 51.6
On 10/13/22 The Hyper Local CMI's Were:
- Paradise Valley - CMI 159.2
- Fountain Hills - CMI 157.4
- Scottsdale - CMI 132.0
- Cave Creek - CMI 114.5
- Chandler - CMI 97.1
- Phoenix - 96.1
- Glendale - CMI 93.8
- Mesa - CMI 90.8
- Tempe - CMI 87.7
- Goodyear - CMI 86.2
- Peoria - CMI 84.8
- Gilbert - CMI 86.2
- Avondale - CMI 79.5
- Surprise - CMI 71.2
- Maricopa - CMI 58.9
- Queen Creek - CMI 52.6
- Buckeye - CMI 51.4
Did You Notice?
While the numbers make it obvious Paradise Valley and Fountain Hills are the strongest markets and that Queen Queen and Buckeye are the weakest markets, it's worth noting that as of late our strongest cities have been taking larger hits (percentage wise). While Queen Creek and Buckeye's CMI remained roughly the same month over month, Paradise Valley's fell approx. 19%. If we look at the Fountain Hills market, we see it fell 11%.
This Correction Was NEEDED
The market continues to swing in favor of buyers. And yes, they don't have as much power in PV as they do in Buckeye, but we see that NO LOCAL AREA is immune to what's going on. With rising inflation and interest rates combined with global uncertainty, this correction is EXACTLY what we needed to see.
Also Read: We're Highly Experienced At Navigating Correcting Markets
