Greater Phoenix Housing Market Update

The Greater Phoenix housing market is always a hot topic, with its fluctuating forces keeping buyers, sellers, and renters on their toes. Recently, talk of a potential shift towards a buyer's market had many speculating about big changes. However, recent data suggests the market may be settling back into familiar patterns. Let’s dive into the latest trends, predictions, and what they mean for you.

Slower Movement Toward A Buyer's Market

The Cromford Market Index (CMI), a key indicator of market conditions, has been under scrutiny as Greater Phoenix experienced unexpected shifts in inventory. But the story isn’t as straightforward as it seemed.

• CMI declined by just 2.1% in the past month, a slower pace than previous weeks.
• Three-week inventory decline observed, typical for December.
• Falling supply benefits sellers but isn't unusual for this time of year.
• Active listings dropping aligns with seasonal patterns but started later than usual.

While the market still leans toward buyers, the slower momentum hints at a less dramatic shift than initially feared. January will offer clearer insights as seasonal fluctuations settle.

Also Read: A Look At Freddie Mac’s Recent Analysis Of The Housing Market

Positive Consumer Confidence & Mortgage Trends

Consumer sentiment is showing signs of resilience, even as affordability remains a challenge. Recent mortgage rate dips have given buyers new hope.

• Consumer confidence index rose by 4% in November.
• 30-year fixed mortgage rates fell to 6.68%, a noticeable drop from over 7% last month.
• Mortgage applications rose 6% in the first week of December.
• Labor market cooling has played a role in softening mortgage rates.

If you’re a buyer, now is a great time to consult your lender. Rate fluctuations and improved market conditions could open up opportunities for savvy buyers.

Rising Home Prices & A Renters' Market

As we look ahead, experts are weighing in on what 2025 holds. Redfin’s forecasts paint a picture of rising home prices and shifting preferences toward renting.

• Home prices projected to rise 4% in 2025.
• Mortgage rates expected to hover near 7%, though some predict around 6.5%.
• Pent-up demand may increase home sales, ending a period of sluggish activity.
• A renters' market looms, with rental prices stabilizing or declining due to new inventory.
• More rental units hitting the market, thanks to pandemic-era construction.

For renters, this could mean better deals and incentives. For buyers and sellers, understanding these dynamics will be key to navigating 2025 effectively.

Also Read: Scottsdale Tops Digital Cities Survey For Second Year In A Row!

Phoenix Median Prices & Appreciation Hold Strong

Despite affordability challenges and lower transaction volumes, Phoenix’s home prices have remained robust, with appreciation rates suggesting continued market strength.

• Median sales prices in 2024 were higher than in 2023.
• Appreciation rates in Greater Phoenix are in a healthy range, averaging 6-7%.
• Sales prices remain stable, defying predictions of steep declines.

If you’re planning to sell, the spring market may offer the best chance for top dollar. Buyers, on the other hand, might find opportunities now as prices temporarily dip in December and January.

Advice For Buyers & Sellers In The Current Market

Timing is everything in real estate. With the market presenting mixed signals, here’s what to consider:

Buyers:

• Take advantage of lower December prices.
• Negotiate better terms with sellers during the slower season.
• Monitor mortgage rates closely; recent drops may save you thousands.

Sellers:

• Hold off until spring, when demand peaks.
• Use the quieter months to prepare your home for the market.
• Understand appreciation trends in your area to price strategically.

Whether you're buying, selling, or renting, staying informed and working with a trusted professional can help you make the best decisions in this market. The Arizona real estate scene is never dull. And 2025 promises more changes on the horizon.

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