Market Update

Spring in Greater Phoenix is traditionally prime selling season. The weather is ideal, buyers enter the market in droves, and listings move quickly. However, this spring is shaping up differently. Sellers are feeling pressure sooner than expected, cutting prices, increasing concessions, and watching buyers step back. Let’s dive into what's really happening.

Inventory Rising

Listings in Greater Phoenix are growing. The active homes for sale recently reached 24,764 (excluding those under contract), significantly outpacing the last two years. March is especially active, with new listings consistently hitting higher numbers weekly. Sellers who price too high risk losing buyers, and delayed listings can get buried beneath fresher options.

Key Inventory Highlights:

• Inventory steadily increasing since January
• New listings outpacing recent years
• Weekly signs and open houses multiplying

Also Read: Selling A Home? Why Strategy Matters Much More Than Timing

Buyers Gain Negotiating Power, Despite Rates

Buyers are seeing increased flexibility from sellers as homes linger on the market longer. Nearly 46% of recent sales now include seller concessions, with the median concession amount reaching $10,000. Yet, rising mortgage rates, recently up to 6.81%, continue to create hurdles, especially on higher-priced homes.

Buyer Advantages:

• Sellers increasingly willing to negotiate on price and terms
• Rate buydowns often covered by seller concessions
• Opportunities available through assumable mortgages
• Buyer competition noticeably reduced

Seller Concessions Ramp Up Early

Typically, Greater Phoenix sellers hold firm until spring peaks, but not this year. According to the Cromford Report, the average list price per square foot began dropping in February, a full six weeks ahead of the usual downturn. Sellers who hesitate to adjust their pricing risk prolonged market times.

Market Pressure Indicators:

• Price cuts started notably early (February vs. typical late March)
• Weekly price reductions accelerating
• Buyers actively seeking and finding better deals

Also Read: Where The Real Estate Market Is At As Of Mid February 2025

Contract Demand Hits 2008 Levels

Perhaps the starkest signal of change comes from contract numbers. Homes currently under contract are alarmingly low, comparable only to levels seen during the 2008 housing downturn. Demand is running about 20% below normal, and the Cromford Market Index (CMI) has fallen to 81.9, signaling a clear shift into buyer’s market territory, the lowest since 2009.

Contract Market Insights:

• Contracts dramatically below typical March levels
• Only 2008 had fewer homes under contract
• Buyers now firmly control market dynamics

City-by-City Market Variations

Not all Phoenix-area cities feel the shift equally. Chandler is still relatively robust, while Maricopa has rapidly cooled. Glendale and Youngtown have shown slight increases in activity, and Peoria ZIP codes are seeing some improvement month-over-month.

Local Market Variations:

• Chandler maintaining strength
• Maricopa firmly in buyer territory
• Glendale, Youngtown showing resilience
• Peoria ZIP codes warming slightly

Also Read: Housing Market Trends Shaping Early 2025 In Greater Phoenix

The Best Week To Sell Approaches

Despite early challenges, sellers still have an important window. Realtor.com identifies April 13-19 as the best week nationally to list a home, aligning historically well with Greater Phoenix’s seasonal peaks. Traditionally, this period attracts the highest number of contracts, driven by excellent weather and seasonal buyer interest.

Action Steps for Sellers:

• Prepare listings now: photos, inspections, pricing strategy
• Aim for mid-April peak exposure
• Avoid delays to capitalize on seasonal buyer influx

Spring Market Bottom Line

The Arizona real estate market is always shifting. Sellers must adjust quickly or risk missing out, while buyers, despite rate challenges, have considerable leverage. Homes priced accurately, prepared meticulously, and listed strategically can still find success. For buyers, now’s the time to negotiate aggressively.

Stay proactive. Stay informed. This market is changing fast.