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Real Estate Trends For Greater Phoenix As Of Early October

Greater Phoenix's Latest Data

Hey there, real estate aficionados! We've got new Greater Phoenix real estate market insights for you. When we say Greater Phoenix, we mean 'The Valley'. With that said, let's get into this latest data that could help your investment strategy. Make sure to scroll to 'City-Wise' section to see HIGHLY DETAILED data.

Greater Phoenix's Year-To-Date Performance

So, let's kick it off with Phoenix's year-to-date stats.

  • Dollar volume down 24% from last year
  • Fewer transactions compared to last year
  • Dollar volume surpasses 2020 figures due to price hikes

That's right. Despite fewer transactions this year, the rising home prices have kept our dollar volume above the 2020 levels. 

A photo of Downtown Phoenix.

Experts Do Not Feel Rates Will Go Down Anytime Soon

The Federal Reserve's Influence

Oh, the Fed. Always making waves in the real estate world.

  • PCE inflation gauge at 3.9% YoY in August
  • Fed hints at sustaining higher rates
  • No immediate rate cuts on the horizon

Despite PCE inflation dropping below 4% for the first time in two years, don't hold your breath for rate cuts. The Fed is playing it coy.

The Mortgage Rate Maze

Talking about rates, what about mortgage rates?

  • Forecast suggests "higher for longer"
  • Current rates in mid to high sevens
  • 3% rates are history

If you've been holding out for those sweet 3% rates to make a comeback, it might be time to reassess. The rates are not dialing back anytime soon, according to the experts.

Seattle's Exodus To Greater Phoenix

Here's a curveball. Seattle residents are eyeing Greater Phoenix.

  • Seattle folks are looking for affordable living
  • Phoenix is their top out-of-state pick
  • Increased demand despite slowing market

Even though the market seems to be slowing down, demand is still robust, especially from out-of-state buyers like those from Seattle.

Understanding The Cromford Market Index (CMI)

First off, a little bit about the Cromford Market Index

  • Utilizes data from 17 key cities in Greater Phoenix
  • Measures both seller and buyer demand
  • Evaluates overall market vitality
  • Provides a snapshot of individual area health

All these elements combined give us the Cromford Market Index (CMI), a comprehensive tool to assess the market's pulse. Keep this in mind as we discuss Greater Phoenix's real estate market.

Cromford Market Index (CMI) As Of Oct. 4th

Let's talk CMI, the pulse of Phoenix's market health.

  • Current CMI around 141.5
  • Seller's market, but 25% below normal demand
  • Supply inching up

Most of Phoenix is still in a seller's market. However, demand is below normal, and supply is slowly creeping up.

A view of Greater Phoenix.

15 Of The 17 Cities In Greater Phoenix Experienced A Decline Month-Over-Month

City-Wise CMI Breakdown (As Of Sept. 28th)

  • 13 out of 17 cities in a seller's market
  • Only 2 cities' CMIs rose
  • 15 cities' CMIs dropped month-over-month
  • Buyer's market emerging in certain areas
  • Market softening month-over-month

Cities like Chandler and Gilbert are seeing month-over-month softening, and places like Buckeye and Queen Creek could soon become buyer's markets. No surprise there.

Cities That Moved Upwards

  • Cave Creek: 164.9 (Up 2% from 162.4)
  • Tempe: 133.7 (Up 1% from 133.0)

Highest CMI

*All comparisons are from one month prior

  • Chandler: 212.1 (Down 28% from 293.1)
  • Fountain Hills: 188.0 (Down 2% from 191.2)
  • Glendale: 185.3 (Down 10% from 205.2)
  • Phoenix: 182.8 (Down 8% from 198.9)
  • Paradise Valley: 178.4 (Down 6% from 190.8)
  • Gilbert: 174.2 (Down 13% from 199.9)

There's a mix of stability and shifts among the top performers. Chandler, although experiencing a significant decrease, still holds the top spot.

Mid-Level Performers

Here are the areas holding their ground but also showing some fluctuation.

  • Mesa: 169.2 (Down 13% from 195.2)
  • Cave Creek: 164.9 (Up 2% from 162.4)
  • Scottsdale: 160.9 (Down 8% from 174.5)
  • Avondale: 152.9 (Down 9% from 167.9)
  • Peoria: 137.1 (Down 4% from 142.6)
  • Tempe: (Up 1% from 133.0)
  • Surprise: 116.2 (Down 7% from 124.3)

The Bottom 4

  • Buckeye: 101.8 (Down 15% from 119.6)
  • Goodyear: 95.3 (Down 16% from 113.5)
  • Maricopa: 94.0 (Down 15% from 110.6)
  • Queen Creek: 93.5 (Down 10% from 103.4)

A Closer Look At Supply

Last but not least, let's talk about supply.

  • Maricopa and Casa Grande have high supply
  • Anthem, Chandler, El Mirage, and Gilbert have low supply
  • Litchfield Park nearing 100 in supply index

So There You Have It

From Federal Reserve policies to the inflow of Seattle settlers, the Greater Phoenix real estate market is a cauldron of fascinating trends. For now? That is it. Stay luxe!

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