Good Time? Or Bad Time?

The Valley’s housing scene is twitchy as of late Septemeber 2025. Not spiraling, not surging. Just leaning back and forth depending on rates, builders, and seasonal quirks. Buyers see more options than last year. Sellers still hang on to price points that don’t fully match the mood. So, where does that leave you? Let’s go over some data, shall we?

Quick Points

• Weekly contracts sit near 2,000, new listings near 3,000

• Mortgage rates bounce, not slide, after Fed moves

• Builders in Buckeye & Maricopa push incentives

• Mid-October often favors buyers with more choice

Also Read: Are Gated Communities Losing Their Popularity In Scottsdale?

Contracts & Listings Drift Close Together

Weekly purchase contracts in The Valley hover in the mid-2,000s. New listings creep into the low-3,000s. That slight edge in supply doesn’t crush pricing. It trims it by maybe 1%. Not enough for bidding wars, not enough for a crash. Think of it as a tug-of-war where neither side wins.

• Contracts mid-2,000s

• New listings low-3,000s

• Gap adds mild pricing pressure

• Prices drift, not dive

• Bidding wars absent

The effect is balance. Buyers get a little more leverage. Sellers still close deals without massive cuts.

Rates Shape The Mood

The Fed shaved policy rates recently, but mortgage rates didn’t follow in sync. They jumped after the 10-year Treasury shifted. That’s the real driver here. Experts don’t see 4% mortgages again. A mid-5% range would already feel “better,” but not cheap.

• Fed cut didn’t lower mortgages

• 10-year Treasury holds sway

• Sub-4% builder promos are temporary

• Mid-5% range seen as relief

• Seller concessions fade first if rates dip

Rates matter more than list prices for many buyers. A 0.5% shift in borrowing costs cuts payments far more than a small discount on the sticker.

Also Read: Mortgage Rates Slide As Phoenix Buyers Weigh Their Next Move

Builder Incentives & Short Windows

Outer-ring builders must move standing homes. That’s why you’ll see bold promos—sub-4% teaser rates, padded commissions, and stronger credits. Some builders face fiscal year deadlines in the fall. That’s when the “deal window” swings open, even if only briefly.

• Buckeye & Maricopa lean buyer-friendly

• Incentives trim resale values nearby

• Builder deadlines create urgency

• Sub-4% offers often tied to short promos

If you’re hunting now, that builder competition can work in your favor. It pressures sellers and resets expectations across neighborhoods.

Prices, Seasonality & Timing

Phoenix’s median price bounced back into the mid-$400Ks in September. That’s roughly spring levels after a summer dip. Year over year, values are still up tens of thousands. But timing shifts monthly readings a lot. Nationally, several big metros slipped late summer, but Phoenix corrected quickly.

• Median in mid-$400Ks

• September up after summer soft patch

• Year over year, still positive

• August looked weaker than September

• Seasonal shifts drive readings

Mid-October often lines up well for buyers: more listings, slightly softer asking prices, and fewer competing bids. That rhythm repeats year after year in The Valley.

Buyer & Seller Psychology

Demand runs at about 80 on a 100 scale. Supply sits closer to balance. Closed sales average mid-80 days on market, with actives at mid-90s. Triple-digit days often spell stale listings. Sellers respond fast when rates dip—less discounting, fewer credits. But it takes sustained demand to move comps higher.

• Demand muted

• Supply balanced

• Days on market mid-80s to mid-90s

• Triple digits = stale

• Sellers firm list prices first

The psychology swings fast, but the numbers crawl. That’s why the market feels stuck.

Also Read: The Types Of Homes That Can Be Trouble In Greater Phoenix

Local Pockets & Submarkets

The Valley isn’t one story. Cave Creek and luxury-leaning areas tilt seller-friendly this fall. Snowbird arrivals and golf tourism fuel those ZIPs. Scottsdale retail refreshes add to that pull. Meanwhile, Buckeye and Maricopa bend toward buyers because of new-build supply.

• Cave Creek tilts to sellers

• Scottsdale’s lifestyle draw props values

• Buckeye & Maricopa lean buyers’ way

• Incentives weigh on resale comps

These splits show why you can’t treat Greater Phoenix as one flat market. Every area rides its own cycle.

The Big Picture

The pandemic-era low inventory is gone. Active listings now stand many multiples higher. That’s why prices don’t shoot sky-high even when demand blips upward. What really hurts is transaction volume - Arizona real estate agents, lenders, & trades see fewer closings. But prices hold steady because the gap between listings and contracts isn’t dramatic.

• Inventory far higher than pandemic trough

• Prices steady despite fewer closings

• Sellers use perks to compete with builders

• Buyers mix credits with buydowns

Crash chatter doesn’t match the data. The Valley is drifting, not diving.

Bottom line: Greater Phoenix sits in balance mode. Builders out wide are bending to move homes. Inner-core sellers are testing patience. Rates hold the real key. If they slide, expect fewer concessions and more action, but no return to the frenzy of 2021. For now, it’s a market of windows, not waves.

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