Market Update

The high-end housing market across the U.S. is starting to feel the heat, and not in a good way. Prices are climbing. But sales? Slumping. Luxury buyers are pulling back, and that hesitation is echoing in the Arizona real estate market as we roll into summer. Inventory, which had been on the rise all year, is starting to shift. What does it mean for Greater Phoenix? Let’s unpack the trends that matter.

Listings Dip As Summer Hits The Valley

For most of 2025, active listings in The Valley had been steadily increasing. Until now.

• Active listings dropped to 26,129

• Cancellations in May spiked to 2,134

• Expired listings continue to climb

• New listings trending lower in June

• Fewer sellers entering the market

This reversal in listing activity might feel subtle, but it marks a meaningful change. With sellers backing off and the seasonal lull setting in, the inventory pressure that once favored buyers may start to ease—at least for now.

Buyers Get Bold With Their Demands

Negotiations are stretching thin. And some buyers? They're asking for a lot.

• Full interior repaint

• Brand new roof—even if the old one's fine

• Window replacements or tinting

• New AC units despite working systems

• Closet adjustments over minor imperfections

It’s a power shift. Buyers know they’ve got more options. Sellers, especially those who don’t have to sell, are walking away instead of meeting aggressive repair lists.

Also Read: Tech & Wealth Drive Scottsdale’s Unmatched Millionaire Growth

Disconnect Between Price & Activity

Nationally, prices are still rising—but activity is slowing.

• Luxury median price hit $1.35M

• Pending sales down 9.9% YOY

• Closed sales down 6.5%

• Inventory up 7% YOY

• Typical luxury home now takes 52 days to sell

That gap between rising prices and shrinking demand? It’s a standoff. Sellers expect top dollar. Buyers want a deal. The result? More listings sitting. More reductions. More stalemates.

Consumer Sentiment Begins To Stir

Despite the drag in sales, there are some flickers of optimism.

• Housing sentiment hits highest point since Nov 2024

• 29% of consumers expect mortgage rates to drop

• Job security concerns easing

It’s not a buying frenzy. But it’s also not doom. The vibe is cautious curiosity. People are watching, waiting, maybe warming up to the idea of re-entering the market.

National Trends Start To Reflect Locally

We're not on an island. What’s happening nationally is starting to show here too.

• New listings nationwide dipped in late May

• Some major metros see sharp listing declines

• Buyers hesitate due to affordability concerns

• Sellers choosing to wait out the uncertainty

Even with hundreds of thousands of homes on the market, many aren't moving. Sellers are fatigued. Buyers are patient. It's a gridlock moment.

Contract Ratios Reveal Cooling Heat

Let’s get into the numbers. The Cromford Market Index tells the story of where we’re headed.

• Valley-wide CMI at 72.7 (firmly buyer territory)

• Supply index ticking down slightly

• Demand still soft, sitting at 79.1

• Most cities in balanced or buyer markets

Only Chandler, Avondale, and Fountain Hills are still leaning seller-friendly. And even they’re barely holding the line.

Also Read: New 2400 Biltmore Residential Project Could Redefine The Area

Assumable Mortgages Get a Spotlight

Retro Rate is a new tool making it easier to find assumable loans.

• Pulls from MLS, tax records, and rate history

• Helps agents match homes with assumable mortgages

• Could help buyers land 3% rates on homes

• Williams Luxury Homes already using similar methods manually

This could be a game-changer in a high-rate environment. And we’re already ahead of the curve.

Builders Adjust & Adapt

Even big builders are feeling the shift and changing course.

• Toll Brothers saw Q2 agreements drop 13%

• Offering more incentives, up to 7% of sales price

• Focusing on margins, not just volume

When the builders adjust strategy, it’s a signal. They’re planning for a slower pace.

The Road Ahead This Summer

So where’s this all going? Right now, supply is inching downward. Demand remains modest. Rates are sticking close to 7%. Unless something gives, we’re likely to ride out a quieter summer.

That doesn’t mean opportunities won’t pop up. There are deals. There are motivated sellers. But you’ve got to be sharp and realistic (on both sides of the transaction).

As always, Williams Luxury Homes is here with honest guidance and clear information. Whether you’re selling, buying, or just watching, we’ll keep you ahead of the market. Stay tuned.

Also Read: New 2400 Biltmore Residential Project Could Redefine The Area