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Let’s cut through the noise. The housing market in Greater Phoenix isn’t crashing, but it is shifting. Sellers are adjusting, buyers are circling, and analysts are watching everything from expired listings, to price cuts, and to inventory trends. April 1 could get interesting. So what’s actually happening out there? Let’s break it down.

Price Cuts, Expired Listings, & That April 1 Spike

Canceled listings are climbing. Expireds are ticking up. Sellers who jumped in early are now backing off, adjusting prices, or walking away.

• Expired listings predicted to spike April 1

• Cancellations rose to nearly 700 per week

• Price cuts now above 3,600 weekly

• List prices falling, but sales prices holding

• Active listings climbed near 25,000 across Greater Phoenix

Many listings that launched in January were 90-day agreements. If they don't sell by April, expect an uptick in expireds, and a slowdown in new supply heading into summer.

Also Read: Big Builders Snag First Lots At Saddleback Community In Peoria

Sales Prices Are Flat, Not Falling

Crash headlines get clicks. But when you look at actual sales prices, the story is pretty boring. Some segments are slipping, but most are steady.

• Monthly average price per square foot: $312

• Average list price per square foot: $362

• Condos taking the biggest hits

• Detached homes mostly holding

• Luxury sales pushing up averages

Price cuts are happening, but this is no collapse. Sellers who bought before mid-2022 are still in strong positions, and most have gained equity.

Buyers Are Calling The Shots

Buyers are no longer desperate. They're deliberate. They're slow, picky, and in full control of negotiations.

• More homes = more leverage

• Buyers want concessions, repairs, and discounts

• Homes must be clean, neutral, and move-in ready

• Minor issues turn buyers off fast

• Sellers are rewarded with contracts, not bidding wars

Today’s buyers want it all. If your home has even a small flaw, they’ll pass, and keep looking.

Mortgage Rates Still Steering The Market

Rates dipped slightly this week. That small shift made a big difference.

• Average 30-year rate: 6.74 percent

• A 1 percent rate drop cuts P&I by 10 percent

• A 0.5 percent drop can save $100+ monthly

• Fed is slowing MBS selloffs, which may help

• Just a modest drop could spark a demand spike

We don’t need 4 percent rates to see movement. Even low-6s could bring in sidelined buyers quickly.

Also Read: Astra To Break Ground In Downtown Phoenix In Summer Of 2025

Buyers Are Waiting, But They're Real

Plenty of buyers are ready, willing, and qualified. They’re just holding out for the right fit.

• Demand still 20 percent below normal

• Contract activity ticking up slowly

• FHA, VA, and cash buyers active again

• Buyers want deals, not drama

• Many will wait, then pounce when the right home pops up

They’re cautious, not absent. And they’re not motivated by rates alone. They’re looking for value.

Inventory Is Up, But Not Out Of Control

Yes, listings are rising. No, we are not repeating 2007. We’re returning to a more normal market.

• Active listings near 26,000

• Inventory growing faster than demand

• Still far below 57,000 seen in the 2007 peak

• No desperation, panic, or mass selling

• Sellers just adjusting expectations after a wild few years

This isn’t a flood. It’s a reset. The frenzy is over, and the market is correcting itself.

Also Read: Construction In Greater Phoenix Reshaping The Valley’s Future

FHA, Delinquencies, & Foreclosure Fears

The scary headlines are back, but the numbers don’t support disaster.

• Maricopa County foreclosures remain under 1,300

• Still well below pre-pandemic levels

• Most tied to failed flips from 2022

• FHA delinquencies up, but far from alarming

• 40-year FHA recasts are helping some borrowers

Plenty of homeowners still have equity. Strategic defaults are rare, and rent is still more expensive than many sub-4 percent mortgages.

Condos Cooling, Luxury Holding, & Split-Segment Trends

Not all corners of the market are behaving the same. Some are cooling fast, others are heating up.

• Condos are softening, especially in high-Airbnb zones

• Luxury homes over $1 million are selling well

• Buckeye, Maricopa, and outer suburbs are cooling faster

• Chandler, Scottsdale, and Gilbert remain strong

• Investors make up only 13 percent of sales

There’s no single Greater Phoenix market. You need to zoom into your price point, location, and property type.

Also Read: Is Scottsdale A Good City To Live?

Should You Buy Or Sell Right Now?

It’s not about timing the bottom. It’s about your goals, plans, and risk tolerance.

Buy if:

• You’re staying at least five years

• You love the home, location, and layout

• You're comfortable with today’s payment

• You plan to refinance later, if possible

Sell if:

• You’ve got solid equity

• Your home is well-prepped, priced, and clean

• You know buyers expect perks, speed, and perfection

• You want to move before more competition enters

The market favors those who act with strategy, realism, and flexibility.

Final Word

Greater Phoenix (as a whole) is now a buyer market. But it’s not falling apart. It’s leveling out.

Prices are flat. Inventory is up. Buyers are picky, informed, and in no rush.

April 1 could bring a bump in expired listings. If it does, expect a quieter summer on the listing front. If it doesn’t, sellers may double down, and hold their ground.

If you’re buying, watch for price drops, incentives, and well-prepped homes. If you’re selling, price smart, clean everything, and expect pushback.

This isn’t a crash. It’s just a cool, calculated standoff.

Also Read: Where Is The Town Paradise Valley Located In Greater Phoenix?