Greater Phoenix’s Slow Grind Forward

The Valley's housing market is creeping. No freefall. No wild rally. Just a slow push and pull. Buyers are cautious. Sellers are stubborn. Rates keep everyone guessing. The story is in the numbers.

Sellers Getting Stuck

Many thought they’d sell fast this year. They didn’t. Four in ten listings fail. Homes sit. Owners cancel.

• Success rate dropped from 74% in March to 64%

• Cancellations up over 40% from last year

• Overpriced listings get ignored

• Buyers demand clean, move-in ready homes

• “Let’s just see” sellers get burned

There’s a silver sliver. Active listings fell from almost 27,000 to about 24,000. Less competition helps. But overpriced is still overpriced.

Inventory Tells The Truth

Crash talk is just noise without more homes on the market. In 2007, Greater Phoenix had 58,000 listings. Normal is about 27,000. Today? Under 24,000.

• January optimism brought a rush of new listings

• Many expired after sellers refused to drop price

• Buyers stayed back while rates stayed high

• New listings holding around 2,700 per week

No big inventory surge. No crash.

Also Read: Scottsdale’s Multi-Family Units Total Lower Than Once Believed

Rates Playing Games

Rates freeze buyers in place. Everyone’s watching the Fed. But mortgage rates move with the 10-year Treasury, not just Fed policy.

• Sitting near 6.6% for 30-year fixed

• Jobs report changes pulled rates to four-month lows

• Market already priced in possible rate cuts

• Tiny drops won’t spark a flood of buyers

Some buyers hunt for assumable loans to grab lower rates. Cash needed to fill the price gap stops most.

Prices Refusing To Bend

Per-square-foot prices haven’t cracked. Slow sales haven’t changed that. The listings-to-contracts gap is too small to pull prices down.

• Sub-$1.5M homes went from $256 to $258 per square foot

• High-end drops tied to summer slowdown, not deep discounts

• Most cities see less than 5% change year-over-year

• Paradise Valley, Chandler, and Fountain Hills still tilt toward sellers

Lowball offers die fast unless a seller is under serious pressure.

Market Index Creeping Higher

The Cromford Market Index is edging up. Supply is shrinking. Demand is flat. The space between them is closing.

• Valley CMI up 4.5% in the last month

• Paradise Valley, Chandler, and Fountain Hills in seller markets

• Cave Creek to Gilbert balanced

• Tempe to Maricopa still buyer-leaning

If rates drop and hold, demand might rise. That could shift more cities toward balance.

The Valley’s market is steady. Sellers are cutting hopes. Buyers are counting every dollar. Rates keep it stuck in neutral. Without a big jump in inventory, the slow grind continues.