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Greater Phoenix Real Estate Market: Are These Stats Correct?

Interesting To Say The Least

We have been very vocal that sellers need to wake up and that the good days are over. We have wanted this market to correct for a LONG time. With that said, the latest statistics from Cromford Report show the market strengthening (as of late). And people HATE hearing it. Even WE were surprised by some of the data. Is this just a blip? It could be. But let us tell you this, the Arizona real estate market has MANY things going for it, hence why it is one of the stronger markets in the United States.

Are we here to say all is dandy and 2023 will be a huge market for sellers? We NEVER make predictions or hype the market. We simply do our best to consistently stay up on a dizzying amount of data and then share it with our readers.

Quick Tidbits

  • While still high, rates have dropped for several months straight
  • Approx. 6,700 listings went under contract in first 3 weeks of 2023
  • Rumors point to May for rates to drop
  • New inventory is already low so what will it be when rates drop?

Cromford Report Data - Jan. 19th, 2023

As we pointed out above, over 6,700 Greater Phoenix listings went under contract in the first 3 weeks of 2023. This is the MOST properties to ever go under contract in Greater Phoenix since Cromford Report began measuring around 2007. Additionally, the number of new home permits being pulled by developers is way down. This is a MAJOR difference from this correction and the crisis of 2008. There is NOT a ton of new inventory on the market.


A surprised man

Greater Phoenix's Real Estate Market Had An Interesting Start To 2023

The Latest CMIs

Cromford Report uses something called the "Cromford Market Index" to determine overall market health. They look at this both on the Greater Phoenix Metro level as a whole, and also all 17 major cities/areas independently. 0-90 = buyers market. 90-110 = balanced market. 110-500 = sellers market.

As of Jan 19th, Greater Phoenix's overall CMI was 111.2. This officially makes it a "sellers market". However, not all of the 17 cities/areas measured are seller's markets. We will get into that in a moment. The "Supply Index" was 67.2 while the "Demand Index" was 74.7. Basically, there is more demand than there is inventory (by a little).

CMI - City By City

While we're not going to go into actual CMI numbers city by city, we're going to focus a bit more on the bigger picture. As of Jan 19th, 2023, 9 cities were sellers markets, 4 were balanced markets and 4 were buyers markets. On a month-to-month scale, every single city improved. Chandler's CMI improved a whopping 47% while Fountain Hills saw the lowest CMI increase at 5%. Regarding Fountain Hills, it's worth noting it still has the second-highest CMI only behind the Paradise Valley real estate market. The average average CMI increase was around 22%.

In Closing

At the end of the day, who knows what will happen? Nobody. What we DO know, however, is that we will be here for you when you need us. That's how we do things at Williams Luxury Homes. We work hard. And smart. Thanks for reading.

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