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Greater Phoenix Sellers Brace For A Tougher Market In 2024

Latest Stats & Stuff

Welcome back to LUXE BLOG. Here we discuss the latest market trends. Lately? We’ve been posting TONS of content outlining a shift. It's true, the Greater Phoenix real estate market is growing in inventory. Does that mean it's dead? No way. From new home builders offering HUGE incentives and buying down rates to sellers making SIGNIFICANT concessions, we kinda like the market how it is. Balanced. While there will be doomers who doom. And hypesters who hype, we do neither. We simply tell it like it is. Then help our clients achieve success. 

Below, we go all 17 cities/areas measured by the Cromford Report. All data is as of Nov. 2nd, 2023.

Current Market Dynamics

Understanding the pulse of the market is key.

  • Notable dips in Cave Creek, Mesa, Scottsdale
  • Sellers offering substantial concessions
  • Homebuilders providing exceptional incentives
  • Inventory rising, signaling a buyer’s advantage

Though the Greater Phoenix market is softening, it remains a smart place to buy real estate. Especially long term. Sellers are now more inclined to put forth their best property forward, often covering closing costs and offering other perks. This approach reflects a strategic adaptation to the changing landscape.

Also Read: Greater Phoenix Resale Housing Inventory Update – Nov. 2023

A scared home seller in the desert.

Inventory Is Rising In The Greater Phoenix Area

City By City CMI

Quite often here on LUXE BLOG, we go over the Cromford Market Index aka the CMI. Provided by, The CMI lets us know if a market is in a buyer's or seller's market (or balanced). We can look at Greater Phoenix as a whole, or even get more granular. Today, we're getting GRANULAR.

*All Data As Of Nov. 2nd, 2023

  • Chandler - CMI Now: 167.0 - CMI Last Month: 205.4 - Change: -19%
  • Gilbert - CMI Now: 164.6 - CMI Last Month: 171.5 - Change: -4%
  • Fountain Hills - CMI Now: 160.3 - CMI Last Month: 186.3 - Change: -14%
  • Glendale - CMI Now: 155.6 - CMI Last Month: 183.7 - Change: -15%
  • Phoenix - CMI Now: 147.3 - CMI Last Month: 179.8 - Change: -18%
  • Paradise Valley - CMI Now: 140.6 - CMI Last Month: 174.4 - Change: -19%
  • Avondale - CMI Now: 137.3 - CMI Last Month: 149.8 - Change: -8%
  • Mesa - CMI Now: 130.5 - CMI Last Month: 164.6 - Change: -21%
  • Scottsdale - CMI Now: 128.7 - CMI Last Month: 158.1 - Change: -19%
  • Tempe - CMI Now: 124.2 - CMI Last Month: 131.1 - Change: -5%
  • Cave Creek - CMI Now: 113.2 - CMI Last Month: 158.9 - Change: -29%
  • Peoria - CMI Now: 109.7 - CMI Last Month: 134.5 - Change: -19%
  • Surprise - CMI Now: 95.3 - CMI Last Month: 115.9 - Change: -18%
  • Maricopa - CMI Now: 82.9 - CMI Last Month: 91.6 - Change: -9%
  • Goodyear - CMI Now: 80.9 - CMI Last Month: 92.2 - Change: -12%
  • Queen Creek - CMI Now: 79.1 - CMI Last Month: 92.4 - Change: -14%
  • Buckeye - CMI Now: 73.8 - CMI Last Month: 98.0 - Change: -25%

Stats At A Glance

  • Cave Creek had the highest change at -29%.
  • Tempe had the lowest change at -5%.
  • Average change was -15.8%.
  • Chandler had the highest current CMI: 167.0.
  • Buckeye had the lowest current CMI: 73.8.
  • Mesa experienced a substantial decrease: -21%.
  • Most cities witnessed declines over 15%.

Other Observations

Looking deeper into the market's behavior.

  • The Cromford Market Index indicates a swift decline
  • A shift towards a balanced market is apparent
  • Sellers, brace for a tougher selling environment

With mortgage rates slightly retracting from their peak, the buying climate has improved. However, the market is approaching a balance faster than anticipated, propelled by growing inventory and stabilizing demand. Sellers may need to weather a stormy season, with expectations of slower traffic and fewer, potentially lower offers.

Also Read: Back To The Future Four – Is 2023 A Repeat Of The 1980s Era?

A rendering of a luxury home during an Open House.

Sellers Are Bracing For A Tougher Selling Environment Heading Into 2024

Current Market Indicators

Understanding the market means looking at the latest indicators. Here's what they're telling us:

  • Job growth has cooled, less than expected.
  • A slight uptick in unemployment to 3.9%.
  • Federal actions aiming to temper the economy.
  • Mortgage rates have seen a significant drop.
  • The Cromford Market Index (CMI) signals a downturn.

The waves of change are coming ashore, and the data points to a storm brewing on the horizon. While the dip in mortgage rates offers a silver lining, it's not a surefire signal of smooth sailing ahead.

Mortgage Rate Movements

Mortgage rates, the compass for many buyers' decisions, have taken a turn:

  • A drop from 8% to about 7.5%.
  • Linked closely to treasury yields.
  • A 67 basis point drop from the 2023 high of 8.03%.

Buyers may find this news encouraging, but the market's current conditions suggest caution. Sellers, especially, should be vigilant as lower rates alone may not be enough to buoy the market.

Market Index Insights

The Cromford Market Index is a beacon for market trends:

  • Overall CMI currently declining, now around 117.
  • A balanced market is between 90 to 110.
  • Supply and demand are edging towards equilibrium.

Even as a seller's market clings on, the index foretells a potential shift to a balanced, perhaps even a buyer's market. As demand softens and supply gradually increases, sellers need to prepare for a possible change in course.

Also Read: Could A Balanced Local Market Be Coming In The Near Future?

Rendering of a luxury desert home.

The CMI Hovers Around 90-110 In A Balanced Market

The Impact On Sellers

The market is shifting. Here's what sellers might expect:

  • Slower traffic during holiday seasons.
  • The potential for lower offers.
  • New construction offering competitive incentives.

In this evolving landscape, sellers should steady their ships, perhaps delaying their sale if possible. Patience may be a virtue in the coming months as the market finds its new balance.

Our Current Thoughts At WLH

At Williams Luxury Homes, we are in the thick of the market every single day. Literally. With that said, we do not see everything falling apart. Arizona real estate is attracting wealthy buyers from all over the United States. Including Cali, Boston, Chicago, Seattle, and MANY more. of course thew market is going to even out. The pandemic was not normal. Homeowners are comfortable in their mortgages (low rates). With that said, obviously they are having a harder time selling. So buyers DO have more power than in a long time. With seller and developer concessions, we are seeing some clients get stellar incentives. For all we know, this is a golden era of buying. Only time will tell.

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