Market Update

The Greater Phoenix housing market is not crashing, but it is sliding. A little slower. A little softer. For the third straight year, single-family home sales dropped. At the close of 2024, just 67,654 homes sold. That is 0.4 percent lower than the year before and far below the peak from four years ago, when the Valley moved over 105,000 homes. Even so, new growth, price gains, and a surge in inventory are reshaping the metro. Big moves are happening in pockets across the map.

Some submarkets are booming while others have cooled. Prices are climbing in a few areas but getting clipped elsewhere. Inventory is rising fast. And buyer hesitation is keeping pending contracts low. It is a balancing act. And one that is starting to tilt.

Supply Rising Fast As Buyer Activity Lags

Sellers are flooding the market. Buyers are dragging their feet. That mismatch is putting pressure on prices.

• 25,120 active listings across Greater Phoenix

• Up from just 17,000 at this point last year

• Inventory at a 4.4-month supply

• New listings surged 13.7 percent to start 2025

• Homes now spend 76 days on market

• Buyers paying 98.1 percent of asking price

• Housing affordability index dropped from 69 to 67

With more homes hitting the market and fewer buyers ready to commit, sellers are adjusting faster. Price cuts are coming quicker. Strategic pricing is now the name of the game.

Also Read: The Spring 2025 Market Shift Impacts Sellers In Greater Phoenix

Price Gains Still Holding In Select Zip Codes

Not every seller is feeling squeezed. In some areas, prices soared through 2024.

• Eloy’s median price jumped 21.5 percent

• Midtown Phoenix followed with a 19.2 percent gain

• Loop 101 and State Route 51 area rose 14.8 percent

• Scottsdale hit $1.23 million, up 14 percent

• Queen Creek reached $677,433, up 11.1 percent

• Peoria climbed to $560,000, up 7.7 percent

Most of the sharpest gains are happening near job hubs, revitalized corridors, or fast-growing fringe cities. Even with rising inventory, price strength is holding in these pockets.

Central & North Valley Markets Lead In Closed Sales

While sales dipped overall, certain areas saw massive spikes in closed deals.

• Glendale’s 85303 zip code exploded, up 50.8 percent

• Midtown and Uptown Phoenix rose 35.3 percent

• West Deer Valley climbed 23.1 percent

• Wickenburg surged into the top five

• Phoenix’s 85012 and 85054 followed close behind

What do they have in common? Access. Either near major freeways or along developing corridors, these zones are pulling in serious volume.

Pinal County Grabs A Bigger Share

Buyers looking further out. Builders going where the land is. Pinal County is stepping up.

• Arizona City, San Tan Valley and Apache Junction led pending growth

• West central Glendale led the Valley in closed and pending deals

• Deer Valley’s Loop 101 and I 17 corridor was second

• The top five pending submarkets also topped new listings growth

The outer ring of the metro is becoming the new activity zone. As prices push up in the core, more buyers are opting for new construction and wider lots further out.

Also Read: Tempe To Allow Duplexes And Fourplexes In More Areas By 2026

New Listings Are Pouring In

Sellers who sat out last year are jumping back in. That is giving buyers more options, but not all homes are moving.

• 7,521 new listings added in March alone

• Outpacing every month of 2023 so far

• Still trailing pre-2022 listing levels

• ShowingTime data shows a spike in showings

• But signed contracts are not rising to match

Plenty of lookers. Fewer buyers. Sellers need to expect delays. And prepare to negotiate.

Million Dollar Medians Are No Longer Rare

Luxury is no longer limited to Paradise Valley. High-end pricing is creeping into other parts of the region.

• Paradise Valley still tops the chart at $1.3 million

• North Scottsdale 85262 joined the club in 2021

• By 2023, three more North Scottsdale ZIPs passed $1 million

• Camelback East Arcadia in Phoenix crossed the line too

That price point used to be an outlier. Now, it is spreading. And it is not slowing down.

Cities Sliding Toward Buyer-Friendly Conditions

Some submarkets have flipped. Others are in transition. Sellers must stay sharp.

• Peoria through Maricopa now leaning buyer

• Cave Creek and Mesa hovering in neutral territory

• Glendale still leans seller but momentum is fading

• More cities showing softening on the Cromford Market Index

• Red arrows are beating green in most metro areas

It is a fluid market. Smart sellers are staying agile, pricing realistically, and adjusting fast if listings stall.

Also Read: TSMC Announces Additional $165 Billion Investment Into Arizona

Pending Sales Still Slipping

Signed contracts remain below expectations, even as foot traffic rises. Buyers are circling, but not pulling the trigger.

• Pending sales dropped 2.5 percent year over year

• Just 66,292 contracts inked in 2024

• Down 19.9 percent in Phoenix proper

• Mesa dropped 28 percent

• Scottsdale down 18.5 percent

That hesitation is real. Rates, prices, or nerves are keeping many on the sidelines. Until contracts catch up, sales will remain soft.

Phoenix, Scottsdale & Other City Snapshots

Different cities. Different stories. Some are stabilizing. Some are slowing.

Phoenix

• Closed sales up 4.5 percent

• Median price hit $495,000

• Inventory up 48 percent

• Pending sales down nearly 20 percent

Goodyear

• Closed sales jumped 37.9 percent

• Pending deals up 29.4 percent

• Median price slipped to $479,990

• New listings climbed 40 percent

Mesa

• New listings up 7.5 percent

• Inventory surged 62.2 percent

• Median price down slightly to $475,000

• Pending and closed sales both dropped

Peoria

• Closed sales increased 7.3 percent

• Inventory rose 61.1 percent

• Pending deals dropped 10.8 percent

• Days on market moved up to 70

Scottsdale

• Median price jumped to $1.23 million

• Closed sales rose 15.7 percent

• Days on market ticked up slightly

• Pending sales dropped 18.5 percent

Queen Creek

• Median price surged over $677,000

• Closed sales dipped 5.9 percent

• Pending deals fell 13.9 percent

• Inventory up 25.7 percent

Also Read: Where Is The Town Paradise Valley Located In Greater Phoenix?

Median Prices Still Holding For Now

Despite shifting conditions, values are holding. Barely. For now.

• Median price in the metro up 4.3 percent to $460,000

• Two-month median at $488,000 to start 2025

• Over 32,000 sales closed between $300,000 and $500,000

• Nearly 6,700 homes sold under $300,000

• $6 million market gains soared between 53 and 83 percent since 2020

Prices are not collapsing. But they are no longer racing ahead either. Instead, small dips and sharp competition are becoming the norm.

Inventory Is Exploding In Key ZIP Codes

Some zones saw huge spikes in active listings heading into the new year.

• 85017 Camelback West up 120.8 percent

• 85302 East Central Glendale up 110 percent

• 85306 North Central Glendale increased 87.9 percent

These surges could give buyers more leverage and keep a lid on future price gains.

Foreclosures Rising But No Red Flags Yet

A quiet trend to watch. Distressed sales are still low but inching upward.

• Maricopa County now at 1,283 pending foreclosures

• Highest level since early 2020

• Still far below the 2009 crash years

• Could hit 1,800 which was the normal pre pandemic range

It is not a panic button. Just a pressure point. One more reason pricing from the start matters more than ever.

What Comes Next

The Greater Phoenix housing market is caught in between. Sales volume is down. Prices are up. Inventory is rising. And buyers are cautious. Some zip codes are booming. Others are cooling. It is not a seller’s market. It is not a buyer’s bonanza. It is something in the middle. And it is unpredictable.

Spring usually brings more activity. But so far, 2025 is staying quiet. If rates soften or job growth expands, demand could pick back up. Until then, sellers must price smart, stay nimble, and be ready to move quickly.

Buyers? This is your moment. The selection is wider. The leverage is real. Play it well.

Have questions about buying a home in Arizona? Feel free to reach out to us here at Williams Luxury Homes.