Greater Phoenix Real Estate Trends
Hello readers. In the Greater Phoenix area, we’re seeing a notable trend with home prices beginning to drop in several cities. Naturally, the question arises: Is this driven by rising interest rates? And does this signal an imminent market crash? In today’s LUXE BLOG, we go over all kinds of relevant data (including a city-by-city breakdown). You see, Greater Phoenix is a large valley. Some cities are performing much better than others. And we outline that below. If you like this type of content, please keep checking back. We’re constantly updating our website WilliamsLuxuryHomes.com with helpful information in regards to the Arizona real estate market. Enjoy.
Greater Phoenix Home Prices Have Begun To Drop
Interest Rates & Market Impact
The influence of rising interest rates on the housing market is undeniable. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean a crash is on the horizon. Here’s a closer look:
- Cities Still Hot: Many areas remain in high demand.
- Gradual Cooling: Price drops are moderate.
- Stability: Market is balanced overall.
- Cromford Market Index: Sitting at 103, indicating balance.
While some cities are seeing price declines, the Greater Phoenix market remains relatively stable, suggesting a cooling rather than a crash.
Market Overview
The Greater Phoenix area is vast, with numerous submarkets exhibiting unique trends. Let’s break down the latest data to understand these patterns.
- Increasing Inventory: More homes are available.
- High Home Prices: Prices remain elevated.
- Skyrocketing Interest Rates: Impacting buyer affordability.
- Slowing Demand: Fewer buyers in the market.
According to the Cromford Report, a reliable source for local market analysis, the current market index is 103, signifying a balanced market with no extreme price movements.
Also Read: Mortgage Rates May Decline As The Fed Considers Cuts In 2024
Even With A Drop In Prices, The Market Remains Balanced
Seasonal Market Trends
Seasonality significantly impacts the Greater Phoenix housing market. The local market follows unique seasonal patterns, unlike many other regions.
- January: Surge in new listings.
- February: Slight slowdown.
- March: Activity picks up again.
- Summer: Decline in market activity.
Luxury listings, in particular, are more sensitive to seasonal changes, often disappearing from the market during the hot summer months and reappearing in the cooler fall season.
City-Specific Trends
Chandler
The Chandler real estate market continues to be one of the hottest, driven by its strong employment sector and excellent school district.
- Contract Ratio: 411 active, 245 under contract.
- Median Sales Price: $560,000.
- Price Growth: Slight flattening.
- Major Employers: Intel, Wells Fargo, Northrop Grumman, Microchip Technology.
Fountain Hills
Fountain Hills, known for its stunning views, has seen significant price appreciation over the years.
- Contract Ratio: 155 active, 58 under contract.
- Median Sales Price: Climbing steadily.
- List Price to Sales Price: 97%.
- Popular For: Vacation homes, spectacular views, proximity to Scottsdale.
Scottsdale
Scottsdale’s market is cooling slightly but remains a desirable location due to its luxury homes and amenities.
- Contract Ratio: 1,863 active, 728 under contract.
- Median Sales Price: $1.08 million.
- List Price to Sales Price: 96.9%.
- Seasonality: Significant fluctuations in summer.
Paradise Valley
Paradise Valley, with its high-end luxury homes, is currently in a balanced market.
- Contract Ratio: 187 active, 36 under contract.
- Median Sales Price: $3.5 million.
- List Price to Sales Price: 93.6%.
- Luxury Market: Higher price points affect ratios.
Cave Creek
Cave Creek is seeing a slight decrease in prices, but it’s not drastic.
- Contract Ratio: 220 active, 52 under contract.
- Median Sales Price: $875,000.
- List Price to Sales Price: 95.9%.
- Character: Larger properties, Western feel.
Certain Cities In The Valley Are Performing Far Better Than Others
Bottom Of The Market
Cities like Queen Creek, Maricopa, and Buckeye are experiencing significant buyer’s markets, primarily due to new construction.
- Competing with New Builds: New homes are more appealing.
- Rate Buy-Downs: Incentives from builders.
- Affordability: Lower prices compared to resale homes.
Cromford Report Data Analysis
The Cromford Market Index provides a comprehensive view of market conditions:
- Above 110: Seller’s market.
- Below 90: Buyer’s market.
- Current: 103, indicating balance.
You can check out live stats at CromfordReport.com
Seasonal Patterns
Examining historical data highlights significant seasonal trends:
- January: Peak in new listings.
- February: Stabilization.
- March-April: Increased activity.
- Summer Months: Market cools down.
- Fall: Resurgence in listings and sales.
Luxury Market Trends
Luxury market dynamics differ significantly from the general market:
- January-February: Increase in listings.
- March-May: Peak sales period.
- Summer: Listings withdrawn.
- Fall: Listings return, renewed activity.
The Time Of The Year Also Plays A Factor In The Market
City By City Breakdown
* All info from June 27th, 2024 Cromford Report data.
- Chandler: Current CMI 194.0, CMI last month 208.7, Change -7%
- Fountain Hills: Current CMI 165.3, CMI last month 183.4, Change -10%
- Avondale: Current CMI 162.4, CMI last month 150.6, Change 8%
- Tempe: Current CMI 140.7, CMI last month 145.1, Change -3%
- Mesa: Current CMI 140.5, CMI last month 150.7, Change -7%
- Phoenix: Current CMI 136.9, CMI last month 143.7, Change -5%
- Gilbert: Current CMI 136.5, CMI last month 159.8, Change -15%
- Glendale: Current CMI 135.2, CMI last month 149.1, Change -9%
- Scottsdale: Current CMI 120.6, CMI last month 128.1, Change -6%
- Peoria: Current CMI 109.3, CMI last month 121.3, Change -10%
- Paradise Valley: Current CMI 108.2, CMI last month 127.6, Change -15%
- Goodyear: Current CMI 87.3, CMI last month 101.6, Change -14%
- Surprise: Current CMI 87.2, CMI last month 92.7, Change -6%
- Cave Creek: Current CMI 86.0, CMI last month 88.8, Change -3%
- Queen Creek: Current CMI 73.5, CMI last month 73.0, Change 1%
- Maricopa: Current CMI 67.6, CMI last month 65.3, Change 3%
- Buckeye: Current CMI 62.4, CMI last month 66.9, Change -7%
It is worth noting that many buyers from California are driving the Queen Creek and Gilbert, Arizona real estate markets. Both are beautiful areas.
Cities Such As Queen Creek And Gilbert Are Loved By Californians
Our Final Thoughts
The Greater Phoenix housing market is experiencing a cooling phase, primarily due to higher interest rates and increased inventory. However, this doesn’t indicate an imminent crash. The market remains balanced, with specific cities showing varying trends. For those keeping a close eye on the market, understanding recent data is key. Additionally, knowing the seasonal patterns, city-specific trends, and overall market conditions will provide info to help you make the best decision. Everyone’s goals are different. Should you have any questions, we here at Williams Luxury Homes are here to help. We want to thank you for reading LUXE BLOG. And we welcome you to contact us with any questions.