Market Update

Mortgage rates are whiplashing. Foreclosures are creeping. Builders are getting aggressive. And the Cromford Market Index just slid further into buyer territory. What a wild week. From market chaos to creeping cracks in Phoenix housing, last week packed a punch. We’re breaking down the numbers, the signals, and the moves you should be watching if you’re buying, selling, or just trying to keep up.

Let’s unpack what’s happening right now across Greater Phoenix’s housing market—and why it’s starting to feel like a shift is underway.

Rates Plummeted Then Spiked Again

Friday was a feel-good moment. Monday? A slap in the face.

Last week saw mortgage rates dip to their lowest level of 2025… then spike hard within 24 hours. The reason? Economic fear, headline volatility, and whispers of new tariffs.

• Rates dropped below 6.6% Friday

• Spiked back up to 6.85% by Monday

• That’s the highest since February

• Treasury yields broke below 4%, then surged

• “Liberation Day” optimism fizzled fast

• Bond markets sold off aggressively Monday

• Uncertainty is now the name of the game

Buyers who locked in Friday might’ve snagged the best rate of the year. Everyone else? Back to reality.

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Builders Are Getting Desperate

Homebuilders are sitting on stacks of unsold inventory. To move product, they’re leaning on every trick in the book.

• 119,000 completed new homes were unsold in February

• Builders slashing prices to stay competitive

• Mortgage rate buy-downs are back in fashion

• Closing cost credits & upgrade incentives offered

• Some new homes now cheaper than recent closings

• Tariffs could push new build costs even higher soon

• Lumber costs already up 34% since late 2020

In Greater Phoenix, the incentives are everywhere. If you’re a buyer considering new construction, now’s your window before costs climb again.

Foreclosures Quietly Rising

This one’s flying under the radar. But the Cromford Report just issued a more serious tone.

• 1,400 pending foreclosures in Maricopa County

• That’s a 50% jump year-over-year

• Still well below pre-2020 levels—but climbing

• Weekly numbers trending upward

• Unemployment ticking higher at 4.2%

• Trustee sale notices creeping up

• Not a crisis, but definitely a warning sign

Foreclosures aren’t flooding the market yet. But if job losses accelerate, this chart could start moving faster.

Also Read: Arizona Gags The Public With Law Favoring Developers’ Deals

Supply Keeps Climbing While Demand Stalls

More homes. Fewer buyers. That’s been the story for months.

• 25,000 active listings in Greater Phoenix

• That’s up 44% from last year’s 17,360

• New listings outpaced the last 3 years

• March brought 10,396 new homes to market

• Only 2022 had more—by a hair

• So far April has added 2,221 listings in 9 days

• Buyer activity (under contracts) isn’t rising much

• Still tracking 2024 levels despite way more supply

The market isn’t frozen. But demand isn’t catching up to the flood of inventory. That’s why sellers need to stay sharp on pricing.

Cromford Index Shows Buyer Edge Building

The Cromford Market Index is slipping deeper into buyer territory.

• Current CMI: 79.3

• Anything below 90 = buyer market

• Demand Index: 81 (still 19% below normal)

• Supply Index: 102.2 (above normal)

• Valley-wide contract ratio: 36 (warm, not hot)

• Most cities saw CMI declines month-over-month

• Buyer sentiment still shaky, per Cromford

• Price sensitivity is rising across all price points

This isn’t a crash. It’s a grind. But buyers are getting more leverage with each passing week.

Also Read: Astra To Break Ground In Downtown Phoenix In Summer Of 2025

Job Numbers Beat, But Unemployment Is Edging Up

The jobs report last week beat expectations, but there’s a wrinkle.

• 228,000 jobs added in March

• Forecast was 140,000

• Unemployment rose to 4.2% (from 4.1%)

• If that trend continues, foreclosures could rise

• Consumer confidence is softening

• Big purchases like homes may be delayed

One strong report doesn’t change the bigger picture. The job market is cooling—even if it’s slow.

What Sellers & Buyers Should Know Right Now

Whether you’re thinking of buying or selling, the market’s shifting. Strategy matters more than ever.

If you’re selling:

• Price competitively—buyers are pickier now

• Don’t expect bidding wars unless you’re underpricing

• Consider offering concessions or incentives

If you’re buying:

• New builds may offer better deals than resale

• Lock rates when they dip—don’t wait too long

• Watch for more listings with price cuts

• Get pre-approved with a lender who moves fast

We’re now in a mixed market. There are deals to be had. But timing, prep, and awareness of market moves are critical.

The takeaway? Greater Phoenix housing is in flux. Builders are making moves, rates are erratic, and foreclosures are starting to tick up. This isn’t a collapse, but it’s not business as usual either.

The smart players are staying alert, moving fast, and watching the data. If you’re one of them, this might be your moment.

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