Market Update

The Arizona housing market is on the move, but not in the direction many expected. Prices are slipping, inventory is building, and sellers are getting squeezed. The Cromford Market Index (CMI) just hit its lowest point since 2009. Buyers are gaining ground. Sellers? Not so much. Here’s the latest of what’s happening across The Valley.

Inventory Climbing & Buyer Power Rising

More homes are hitting the market. That means more choices and better deals for buyers.

• Active listings up 47% from last year

• Pending sales ticking upward month over month

• Overall sales volume higher than last April

• CMI sits deep in buyer territory

• Inventory trends continue to climb

The rise in supply is reshaping the market. Sellers have to work harder to attract offers. Buyers, meanwhile, are negotiating more. And winning.

Price Drops In Every Direction

Home prices aren’t just softening, they’re dropping fast in some areas.

• Median sales price just under $460,000

• Price per square foot trending down since spring

• Luxury market losing steam

• Sharpest drops in new construction pricing

• Lower-priced homes see the most activity

The spring buying season didn’t deliver the price bump many sellers hoped for. Instead, values are resetting lower, especially in the high-end market.

Also Read: Spring 2025 Data Signals Market Balance Starting In Scottsdale

Rate Swings Shake Up Affordability

Mortgage rates keep bouncing around, adding more uncertainty to the mix.

• Rates climbed back near 7%

• Recent inflation data added pressure

• Slight cooling helped rates briefly dip

• Fed policy remains a big wildcard

These fluctuations make timing tricky for buyers. One week you qualify for a home. The next, it’s out of reach. Rate locks are more important than ever.

Sellers Still Overpricing Homes

There’s a growing mismatch between what sellers want and what buyers will pay.

• $39,000 average gap between list and sale price

• 60% of homes now sell below asking

• Sellers continue to push prices higher

• Sales prices haven’t kept up

• Median list prices rising faster than actual sold prices

Many sellers haven’t accepted the new market reality. And homes are sitting longer because of it.

Also Read: Greater Phoenix Faces Disruption From Robot Home Builders

Big Differences Neighborhood By Neighborhood

Not every part of Greater Phoenix is feeling the shift the same way.

• Downtown Phoenix saw a small dip in pricing

• Goodyear home prices slid slightly

• Scottsdale still showing strength in the luxury segment

• Entry-level markets seeing more sales volume

• Some zips now in cold-market territory

The Valley’s market is becoming hyper-local. In some areas, homes sell fast. In others, they linger.

Contract Ratios & Sales Success Falling

There’s another way to spot the slowdown: contract ratios and listing success rates.

• Contract ratio under 33%

• Active listings outpacing signed deals

• Listing success rate dropped to 64%

• Many homes expiring or getting canceled

Fewer homes are making it to the finish line. Buyers are picky. And overpriced homes don’t stand a chance.

Where It’s All Headed Next

Things are cooling fast. And summer is typically a slower season in The Valley.

• Prices have already dropped since March

• Buyers have more leverage than they’ve had in years

• Sellers need to adjust quickly or risk long waits

• Lower mortgage rates could help, but not guaranteed

If you’re buying, the market is shifting in your favor. Sellers, you’ll need to be strategic, flexible, and realistic to move your property. The Valley’s housing scene is moving, just not in the direction most expected.

Also Read: Chris Janson Named President Of Halo Vista In North Phoenix